Genoa vs Como
Serie A, Italy · 2026-09-04 · 20:45 CET
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WWWDWThe score model made a Como win the most likely outcome at 52%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:4 (HT 1:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Genoa 0.87 – 1.52 Como.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa win | 21.6% | 17.1% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.4% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Como win | 52.5% | 56.5% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.9% | 48.0% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.0% | 28.2% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.5% | 48.9% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.9% | 32.1% | -6.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Genoa 44.8 / Como 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.