Lecce vs AS Roma
Serie A, Italy · 2026-08-31 · 18:30 CET
LWWWL
WWWWWThe score model made an AS Roma win the most likely outcome at 60%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lecce 0.65 – 1.58 AS Roma.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce win | 14.9% | 12.7% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.0% | 22.1% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| AS Roma win | 60.0% | 65.2% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.6% | 47.5% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.7% | 27.0% | -8.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 37.9% | 43.0% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.3% | 32.2% | -9.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lecce 47 / AS Roma 47 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.