Napoli vs Como
Serie A, Italy · 2026-08-30 · 18:30 CET
LWWWL
WWWDWThe score model made a Napoli win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Napoli 1.26 – 1.10 Como.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli win | 39.9% | 37.5% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 31.5% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Como win | 32.0% | 30.9% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.0% | 42.6% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.3% | 23.0% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | 50.4% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 29.3% | -1.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Napoli 47.1 / Como 38.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.