Sassuolo vs Torino
Serie A, Italy · 2026-08-29 · 18:30 CET
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WLDLLThe score model made a Sassuolo win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sassuolo 1.41 – 1.22 Torino.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo win | 41.1% | 41.7% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 29.2% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Torino win | 32.4% | 29.0% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | 46.7% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% | 27.0% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 52.9% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 31.9% | -0.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sassuolo 34.9 / Torino 47.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.