Monza vs Udinese
Serie A, Italy · 2026-08-29 · 18:30 CET
WLLLL
WLLDWThe score model made a Udinese win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Monza 1.04 – 1.41 Udinese.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza win | 27.7% | 31.2% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 30.9% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Udinese win | 45.2% | 37.9% | +7.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.3% | 41.0% | +3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.2% | 21.6% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 48.7% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 28.2% | +0.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Monza 22.4 / Udinese 47.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.