Juventus vs Parma
Serie A, Italy · 2026-08-29 · 20:45 CET
WLDWW
LLWLLThe score model made a Juventus win the most likely outcome at 61%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Juventus 1.60 – 0.62 Parma.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus win | 61.0% | 77.3% | -16.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 15.6% | +9.3% | ✗ |
| Parma win | 14.1% | 7.1% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.4% | 54.7% | -16.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.6% | 33.2% | -14.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.2% | 38.0% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.3% | 37.7% | -16.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Juventus 47.2 / Parma 38.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.