AC Milan vs Venezia
Serie A, Italy · 2026-08-28 · 20:45 CET
LWLWW
WLLLLThe score model made an AC Milan win the most likely outcome at 65%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AC Milan 1.90 – 0.72 Venezia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 65.1% | 65.1% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.6% | 21.1% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Venezia win | 13.3% | 13.8% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 54.8% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 33.6% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.8% | 49.6% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.1% | 37.1% | -12.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AC Milan 47.4 / Venezia 13.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.