Hoffenheim vs Dortmund
Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-05 · 15:30 CET
WDWLL
WLWWWThe score model made a Dortmund win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hoffenheim 1.43 – 2.03 Dortmund.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim win | 26.4% | 36.9% | -10.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.9% | 25.1% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Dortmund win | 50.6% | 38.0% | +12.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.2% | 65.0% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.5% | 45.2% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 66.8% | 66.9% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 51.0% | 44.9% | +6.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hoffenheim 41.6 / Dortmund 41.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.