Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin
Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-05 · 15:30 CET
WWLDL
LDWWDThe score model made a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely outcome at 67%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 2.30 – 0.93 Union Berlin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 67.5% | 69.5% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.5% | 17.6% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Union Berlin win | 13.0% | 12.9% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% | 67.8% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.3% | 47.8% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | 59.1% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 51.5% | 46.6% | +4.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bayer Leverkusen 41.6 / Union Berlin 41.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.