Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-08-29 · 15:30 CET
LDWWD
DLLDDThe score model made an Eintracht Frankfurt win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 3:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Union Berlin 1.39 – 1.60 Eintracht Frankfurt.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin win | 32.4% | 36.7% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.7% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 41.6% | 36.7% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | 58.8% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.1% | 38.0% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | 62.3% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.8% | 39.8% | -1.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Union Berlin 41.2 / Eintracht Frankfurt 41.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.