Dortmund vs Hamburger SV
Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-08-29 · 18:30 CET
WLWWW
LWWDLThe score model made a Dortmund win the most likely outcome at 68%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dortmund 2.24 – 0.87 Hamburger SV.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dortmund win | 67.6% | 69.4% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.8% | 18.0% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Hamburger SV win | 12.6% | 12.6% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 63.5% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% | 42.1% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | 54.6% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.1% | 43.3% | -2.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dortmund 41.2 / Hamburger SV 22.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.