Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart
Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-08-28 · 20:30 CET
WDWWW
DDWDLThe score model made a Bayern Munich win the most likely outcome at 72%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 82%). It finished 5:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bayern Munich 3.11 – 1.37 Stuttgart.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich win | 71.6% | 77.4% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 15.1% | 13.2% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Stuttgart win | 13.3% | 9.3% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82.4% | 80.8% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 65.4% | 64.5% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 71.6% | 65.3% | +6.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 84.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 56.7% | 58.1% | -1.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bayern Munich 41.3 / Stuttgart 41.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.