Le Havre W vs Lyon W
Division 1 Women, France · 2026-09-18 · 19:00 CET
LWDLW
WDWWWThe score model made a Lyon W win the most likely outcome at 94%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 83%). It finished 1:8 (HT 0:4) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Le Havre W 0.52 – 4.03 Lyon W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre W win | 1.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Draw | 4.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Lyon W win | 93.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 39.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 87.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 60.5% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Le Havre W 27.4 / Lyon W 27 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.