Arsenal vs Chelsea
Premier League, England · 2026-09-06 · 17:30 CET
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WLWWLThe score model made an Arsenal win the most likely outcome at 64%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arsenal 2.00 – 0.85 Chelsea.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 63.5% | 55.7% | +7.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 24.9% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Chelsea win | 14.4% | 19.5% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% | 54.2% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.0% | 33.9% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 54.0% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.8% | 36.8% | +1.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arsenal 46.9 / Chelsea 47 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.