Nottingham vs Tottenham
Premier League, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
DLDLD
DLWLLThe score model made a Nottingham win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nottingham 1.67 – 1.21 Tottenham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham win | 47.3% | 38.5% | +8.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 27.6% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Tottenham win | 26.9% | 33.9% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 53.4% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 33.1% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | 58.0% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.0% | 35.7% | +3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nottingham 47 / Tottenham 47.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.