Newcastle vs Bournemouth
Premier League, England · 2026-09-05 · 13:30 CET
DWLDW
WDDLDThe score model made a Newcastle win the most likely outcome at 48%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Newcastle 1.75 – 1.28 Bournemouth.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 47.7% | 45.6% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.0% | 25.9% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Bournemouth win | 27.3% | 28.5% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.5% | 60.2% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.1% | 39.7% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% | 62.7% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.8% | 40.9% | -3.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Newcastle 47.1 / Bournemouth 47.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.