Fulham vs Crystal Palace
Premier League, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
LDWLL
LDLLLThe score model made a Fulham win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:3 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fulham 1.42 – 1.09 Crystal Palace.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 43.8% | 44.6% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 28.4% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Crystal Palace win | 28.0% | 27.0% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 49.1% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% | 29.0% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 54.0% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.7% | 33.7% | -5.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fulham 47 / Crystal Palace 47.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.