Brighton vs Leeds
Premier League, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
WLLWL
DWLWDThe score model made a Brighton win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brighton 1.70 – 1.16 Leeds.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 49.2% | 47.2% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 26.5% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Leeds win | 25.2% | 26.4% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | 54.2% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.1% | 33.7% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | 57.0% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 36.0% | -5.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brighton 47.1 / Leeds 28.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.