Sunderland vs Fulham
Premier League, England · 2026-08-30 · 15:00 CET
DWWLW
LDWLLThe score model made a Sunderland win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sunderland 1.23 – 1.11 Fulham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 37.9% | 37.3% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.0% | 29.3% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Fulham win | 32.0% | 33.4% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.5% | 46.7% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.0% | 26.5% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 52.4% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.0% | 31.9% | -7.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sunderland 25.5 / Fulham 46.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.