Manchester Utd vs Ipswich
Premier League, England · 2026-08-30 · 17:30 CET
DWWLW
LLLWLThe score model made a Manchester Utd win the most likely outcome at 70%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 5:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Manchester Utd 2.42 – 0.93 Ipswich.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester Utd win | 69.8% | 69.9% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 18.3% | 18.2% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Ipswich win | 11.9% | 11.8% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.1% | 62.6% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.1% | 41.7% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | 54.0% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.6% | 42.7% | +0.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Manchester Utd 46.8 / Ipswich 13.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.