Chelsea vs Brighton
Premier League, England · 2026-08-30 · 15:00 CET
DWLWW
WLLWLThe score model made a Chelsea win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 4:3 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chelsea 1.64 – 1.34 Brighton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 43.6% | 50.6% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 25.0% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Brighton win | 30.6% | 24.4% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.2% | 58.1% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.8% | 37.4% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | 59.5% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.4% | 38.9% | +3.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chelsea 46.7 / Brighton 46.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.