Tottenham vs Newcastle
Premier League, England · 2026-08-29 · 18:30 CET
DLWLL
DWLDWThe score model made a Newcastle win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tottenham 1.54 – 1.70 Newcastle.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 34.2% | 43.0% | -8.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 25.9% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Newcastle win | 41.0% | 31.0% | +10.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.8% | 57.5% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.6% | 35.9% | +4.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.0% | 60.6% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.9% | 39.7% | +6.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tottenham 46.8 / Newcastle 46.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.