Bournemouth vs Everton
Premier League, England · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
WDDLD
DLLWDThe score model made a Bournemouth win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bournemouth 1.42 – 1.05 Everton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 44.5% | 45.3% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.5% | 27.6% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Everton win | 27.0% | 27.1% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% | 49.3% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.7% | 28.1% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 53.7% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.5% | 34.4% | -7.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bournemouth 46.8 / Everton 46.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.