Lok. Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-23 · 20:15 CET
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DWWWWThe score model makes an CSKA Sofia win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 72.7% vs 66.3% implied (+6.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lok. Sofia 0.88 – 1.76 CSKA Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lok. Sofia win | 18.1% | 18.2% | -0.1% |
| Draw | 23.8% | 23.6% | +0.2% |
| CSKA Sofia win | 58.1% | 58.2% | -0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 54.5% | -5.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 33.7% | -6.5% |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 53.5% | -4.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 37.4% | -5.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lok. Sofia 44.7 / CSKA Sofia 44.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.