Novorizontino vs America MG
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-22 · 01:30 CET
LLWLD
DLWLLThe score model makes a Novorizontino win the most likely outcome at 61%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 74.3% vs 68.7% implied (+5.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Novorizontino 1.65 – 0.68 America MG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino win | 61.0% | 61.8% | -0.8% |
| Draw | 23.7% | 24.0% | -0.3% |
| America MG win | 15.3% | 14.2% | +1.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.1% | 45.8% | -4.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.6% | 25.5% | -4.9% |
| Both teams to score | 39.6% | 43.4% | -3.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.7% | 31.3% | -5.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Novorizontino 52.2 / America MG 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.