Novorizontino vs America MG
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-22 · 01:30 CET
WDLDW
LWLLLThe score model made a Novorizontino win the most likely outcome at 63%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Novorizontino 1.72 – 0.66 America MG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino win | 63.2% | 59.9% | +3.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.8% | 24.8% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| America MG win | 14.0% | 15.3% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.4% | 45.2% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.6% | 25.2% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.4% | 44.1% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.0% | 31.3% | -5.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Novorizontino 52.9 / America MG 47.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.