Athletic Club vs CRB
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-22 · 00:30 CET
DWDWW
WWWWDThe score model makes a Athletic Club win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Athletic Club win — 45.0% vs 38.9% implied (+6.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Athletic Club 1.40 – 1.06 CRB.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 45.0% | 38.9% | +6.0% |
| Draw | 26.3% | 30.4% | -4.1% |
| CRB win | 28.7% | 30.7% | -2.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | 41.8% | +2.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.4% | 22.6% | +0.8% |
| Both teams to score | 49.0% | 49.1% | -0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.9% | 29.2% | +2.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Athletic Club 37.6 / CRB 52.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.