Vila Nova FC vs Ponte Preta
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-21 · 01:30 CET
LWLLW
LLDLDThe score model makes a Vila Nova FC win the most likely outcome at 66%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 40.3% vs 33.9% implied (+6.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vila Nova FC 1.94 – 0.73 Ponte Preta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova FC win | 66.1% | 68.1% | -2.0% |
| Draw | 20.5% | 21.1% | -0.7% |
| Ponte Preta win | 13.4% | 10.8% | +2.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.8% | 49.6% | +0.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.8% | 28.8% | -1.0% |
| Both teams to score | 44.1% | 42.7% | +1.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.3% | 33.9% | +6.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vila Nova FC 52.3 / Ponte Preta 34 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.