Vila Nova FC vs Ponte Preta
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-21 · 01:30 CET
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LLLWLThe score model made a Vila Nova FC win the most likely outcome at 72%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 6:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vila Nova FC 2.20 – 0.71 Ponte Preta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova FC win | 71.7% | 68.1% | +3.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 17.6% | 21.0% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Ponte Preta win | 10.6% | 11.0% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.6% | 49.9% | +5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.2% | 28.9% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.9% | 42.7% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.6% | 34.1% | +10.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vila Nova FC 53 / Ponte Preta 34.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.