Leuven W vs Gent W
Super League Women, Belgium · 2026-09-06 · 17:00 CET
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LLLLLThe score model made a Leuven W win the most likely outcome at 84%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 6:1 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Leuven W 2.87 – 0.52 Gent W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leuven W win | 84.4% | 83.5% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 11.9% | 11.1% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Gent W win | 3.6% | 5.4% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.8% | 68.1% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.0% | 50.8% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 39.0% | 42.6% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 53.7% | 49.9% | +3.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Leuven W 27.8 / Gent W 27.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.