Club Brugge W vs St. Liege W
Super League Women, Belgium · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
LDWLD
LDLDLThe score model made a Club Brugge W win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 3:1 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Club Brugge W 1.52 – 1.29 St. Liege W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge W win | 41.0% | 59.4% | -18.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 22.2% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| St. Liege W win | 30.9% | 18.3% | +12.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | 55.7% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.1% | 35.1% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | 53.7% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 39.2% | -3.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Club Brugge W 27.7 / St. Liege W 27.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.