Botola Pro title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Morocco · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 25 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Kawkab Marrakech (38%), COD Meknes (16%), FAR Rabat (15%). 15 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawkab Marrakech | 4 | 9 | 1411–16 | 38% | 6 from 3 (2.00/game) |
| COD Meknes | 5 | 10 | 1210–14 | 16% | 5 from 2 (2.50/game) |
| FAR Rabat | 2 | 4 | 118–14 | 15% | 11 from 4 (2.75/game) |
| Raja Casablanca | 3 | 5 | 118–15 | 11% | 10 from 4 (2.50/game) |
| Maghreb Fez | 4 | 7 | 118–14 | 6% | 8 from 3 (2.67/game) |
| Wydad AC | 5 | 8 | 119–14 | 4% | 7 from 2 (3.50/game) |
| IR Tanger | 4 | 7 | 108–13 | 3% | 8 from 3 (2.67/game) |
| Hassania Agadir | 4 | 7 | 107–13 | 3% | 8 from 3 (2.67/game) |
| Difaa El Jadidi | 4 | 6 | 97–12 | 2% | 9 from 3 (3.00/game) |
Below 1%: Union Touarga, Widad Temara, Berkane, FUS Rabat, Amal Tiznit, Moghreb Tetouan, Renaissance Zemamra.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 22 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).